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2024-12-13 04:35:58

Overnight, the external stock markets were mixed, and the three major indexes of the United States weakened collectively, while the Chinese stock index rose by 8.35% and the A50 index rose by 0.84%. The external sentiment was obviously beneficial to China assets. Therefore, there is no suspense in opening higher today, but if the opening is too large, it is not a good thing.What I want to express is very simple. The tone of this meeting is very positive, but it is beneficial to the medium and long term, and the short term may not be as radical as everyone thinks. At least today is suitable for holding shares, but it is not suitable for chasing up. Next, let's talk about my views from a technical point of view!First of all, the policy combination boxing includes not only monetary policy, but also fiscal policy. Some brokers have predicted that deficit ratio will increase from 3% to 4%. Of course, this needs to be verified later. It's just that fiscal stimulus is a moderate rhythm of releasing water, not to mention that it hasn't been introduced yet, at least don't expect this batch of funds to flow into A shares quickly.


First, simply sort out the contents of the after-hours meeting:1. This time, boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand are put in the first place, which is basically consistent with the official media preheating. But I emphasized this piece yesterday. It's not that everyone doesn't want to spend, but that they don't have money to spend. It depends on whether the money issued by the special national debt can be cashed in, which will benefit big consumption in the short term, but the overall increase of this piece is really not small. Don't blindly chase after it.


3. The monetary policy has shifted from steady to moderately loose, which has been mentioned again since 2011. I don't need to say much, but this is expected, and it hasn't landed yet, and the above supplement is to keep the bottom line of systemic risk, so it won't be like the previous flood irrigation, at least in 2014. Leveraged cattle should be difficult to reproduce.2. The new quality productivity ranks second this time. The key point is that last year, the construction of modern industrial system was led by scientific and technological innovation, and this time it has become the development of new quality productivity led by scientific and technological innovation. The new quality productivity has been repeatedly mentioned by Lao Liu recently, and the synthetic biology, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy and the direction of Lu Yun mentioned yesterday deserve special attention.December 10th Morning Post: High-level enlargement, homework came out today!

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